Future trends: the 2015 consumer

I went to a ‘big conversation’ hosted by Mintel last week that used four macro trends to forecast how the world could be working in 2015 and the subsequent impact that could have for people, industry and brands.

It mixed cold hard data and market experience to project what we can expect to see in future years and it threw up some interesting points providing real food for thought, particularly around how products and brands need to evolve and adapt to the new tastes and customs of a global audience.

For me the most interesting point came with the intersection of three trends, all of which are pretty self-explanatory, well the first two at least, the third refers to the older generation, their increased number, spending power and youthful attitude to life.

1.     East meets West

2.     Access everywhere

3.     Old Gold

It was a reoccurring theme around the notion of a healthy lifestyle along with the importance of looking after yourself and others that I found interesting – here’s a top line on the three trends and how their convergence could provide significant opportunities for some brands.

1.     East meets West. The growth of the East is well documented but the size and speed of this growth really is something to behold…

·       90% increase in India’s GDP over the next four years

·       More 1m+ populated cities in China than the US and Canada

·       China responsible for 25% of luxury goods sales across the globe in 2011

·       Migration to cities (particularly in China and India) will result in 70% of world population living in cities by 2020

It’s fair to assume that the subsequent impact on the cost of living and consumption of everything from food to luxury manufactured goods across the globe will be significant.

2.     Access Everywhere is already well under way, but the innovations around smart phones, location based technology, along with NFC technology removing data transfer barriers, will have a huge effect on how people interact with their surroundings…

·       By 2014, more people will access the web via mobile than desk top machines

·       Attitudes to online security are changing - 30% of teens who have been ‘hacked’ said they don’t think it’s a big deal

·       Personal appliances previewed at the recent Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas are now synchronised to social networks and mobile devices

·       People are increasingly prepared to pay more for mobile tailored content

·       1 in 3 men in the U.S. use their mobile to manage their health

Again, health and wellbeing are likely to see significant advances as a result of technology driving “DIY health”. We’ve seen diabetes blood testing apps and Wi-Fi enabled smart scales at CES and the recently launched Nike+ FuelBand is another example of technology driving the personalised health sector.

3.     Finally, Old Gold highlights the growing impact that an ageing population could have and argues that a once ignored consumer group should become a much greater focus for brands over the next five years, especially given their appetite for adventure and receptiveness to new technologies improving their lifestyle.

·       144m more over 55s in the world than today (by 2015)

·       Over 55s will double by 2015 in the UK

·       Intergenerational homes becoming more and more commonplace

·       By 2015, 41% of South Koreans and 45% of Japanese will be aged over 60

·       50% of kindle users are over 50

·       50% of babies born after the year 2000 will live to 100 years old

The numbers above highlight the strain that state services will be under in trying to look after an ageing population. It’s likely that remit will begin to fall to families, not just the state – and that could have implications still further for the long term attitude of governments to the health and wellbeing of its people.

It feels like the opportunity around health and wellbeing over the next 5 years in particular will be significant. And I’m not just talking about importing Tai Chi exercise into the workplace here. I think we’re likely to see a longer term pro-active approach to health and wellbeing that encompasses a much more holistic perspective, facilitated partly by the advances in mobile technologies and personalised health management and partly by the wider social backdrop of healthcare systems under considerable strain. with intergenerational family units caring for each other as opposed to relying on the state, much like we see in the Far East.

Will we end up with a nation of health obsessed hypochondriacs? I don’t think so; I think people will be much more aware of the lifestyle they are leading and that improved education and tangible monitoring techniques will enable people to enjoy a more balanced lifestyle. It will enable people to really question the suitability (be that provenance, health or ethical credentials) of the products and brands on offer to them. All of which could have significant repercussions for brands that are ill prepared, while also serving as a huge competitive advantage for those businesses that have evolved to pre-empt a new breed of consumer.

Make 2012 count

2012 is a big year in the UK and as the hosts of this year’s Olympics, we have a grandstand seat for the inevitable battle of brands associating themselves, officially or otherwise, with the sporting excellence, the excitement and the atmosphere of the greatest show on earth.

The usual battle between Adidas and Nike has started earlier than usual. Famed for one of the original large scale ambush marketing strategies at the 96 Atlanta games, Nike kicked off this year’s campaign in the very first week of the year and it’s already looking ominous for adidas.

‘Make it count’ is highly relevant because it builds on Nike+ themes of training and preparation rather than just focusing on the moment of truth, the victory. It uses strong GB medal candidates but focuses on their personal pledges, enabling Nike to then invite consumers to ‘make it count’ – a real strength when the ‘black out’ on competing Olympians in advertising starts in July. And crucially, it’s simple, the type of phrase that’s instantly understandable, embodies the brand ethos and could enter the national vernacular.

 

While London 2012 is being dubbed the first social media games, brands have to recognise that one crucial factor hasn’t changed – a good idea that engages an audience. The difference now of course is that engagement stretches far beyond watching an ad and talking to friends about it at work or school. Social media provides the tools for consumers to share, to comment, to interact and to contribute. A campaign can offer all of this opportunity but without one of four motivating factors, it’s unlikely to trigger engagement online…

1. Make me look good - asserting personal identity through association with the brand or idea such as charitable campaigns like Lance Armstrong’s ‘Livestrong’. In 2012 the energy company EDF and even Coke are pushing sustainability agendas, whether these will succeed remains to be seen.

2. Entertain me - be it games or exclusive content such as behind the scenes access to athletes is extremely valuable, especially in the build-up to the games. Nike, BMW and BA appear to be heading in this direction.

3. Inform me - Practical Knowledge that informs and educates will be a tough area for brands to compete in over 2012 given the might of the BBC, especially when you consider that the media centre in Stratford is the second largest building on the Olympic site.

4. Reward me - on the most basic level, consumers engage with a brand that gives them discounts and rewards. Usually the domain of FMCG sponsors, such as Coke and P&G, there is a danger that such ticket giveaways become highly transactional and don’t tend to drive deeper on-going relationship with the brand

BA young Britons press campaign

It ought to be a lot easier for a sports brand to inspire the nation around an engaging message than say a chocolate bar brand, but you only have to try and remember previous adidas campaigns to realise that it takes more than an official association to make your mark.

P&G cross brand promotion offering tickets to purchasers

Condemning adidas at this stage would be premature, as an official sponsor, they are more likely to focus their activity around the games themselves but this carries some risks. Nike has effectively got a 7 month head start to build momentum and on the strength of January, it’s not good news for adidas. If the campaign continues to evolve and amateur sportsmen and women take it on board, the notion of ‘making it count’ may cease to be an ad strapline and turn into something bigger, a mind-set, a point of view, a sound bite that becomes the property of the people rather than the brand, and unfortunately that’s something adidas won’t be able to rely on as part of their £50m sponsorship package.

Arnold makes the A list

Lead by Boston HQ, Arnold has received the highly coveted honour of a spot on Ad Age’s Agency A-List.

Each year, Ad Age’s editorial board selects the top 10 agencies that they believe delivered in 2011. It's a holistic assessment of the agency’s performance across creative, financials, talent, brand reputation, new business and innovation. You can read more about it here.

Next year, we’ll be after the top spot.

Hidden London - Brentford

London may have a Starbucks opposite a McDonalds on every corner, but you can still find a bit of old London hiding behind the High Street, in this case hiding behind the Beehive pub on Brentford High st. Who needs the Meatwagon when you've got Langley's winkles & cockles?

STOP PRESS: Airline provides decent customer service

Something very strange happened yesterday. I telephoned a large business, an airline to be specific, and a human being answered. Not only that, they answered after just 2 rings, they were polite, helpful and advised on how i could actually save money booking extra luggage on to their airline. I did actually wonder for a split second if i'd called the right number, understandable given that most airlines hide a telephone number in the dark corners of their website, desperate to avoid any irritating customers wasting their staff's time and driving up costs with something as inconvenient as a customer query. So well done Aurigny airlines, that sort of customer service could tip the balance on a short domestic route where there's nothing to choose between two competing airlines. Now if they could just relook at that £4 each way credit card fee...

Tweeting biscuit tins

I came across ‘super mechanical’ this afternoon. Two chaps formerly of MIT in Boston. They invent things like wallets that physically alert you to overspending online, furniture that turns digital communication into physical images and vice versa and their latest product – TWINE – a little battery powered box with sensors and WiFi connectivity that enables your house, or belongings to talk to you, well, send you a pre-determined alert message.

The beauty of this bit of kit is the set up. No coding, or instructional PDFs, just a simple user friendly rules based online app.



 

Use the temperature check to keep tabs on your wine cellar when you’re out for dinner. Or use the vibration sensor to keep guard on the biscuit tin when you’re grazing elsewhere. The uses are endless and at $99 a unit, its well worth a discretionary purchase – you may need to join the queue though. There’s a waiting list and the first products off the line will ship in the spring.

Fish on Shaftesbury Avenue

I walked past this great display of metal work sculptures suspended in an 'aquarium' on friday night on Shaftesbury avenue (Neal St end). You can see more by the Cornwall based artist, Michael Chaikin, here.

The importance of on going dialogue

A recent study in the run up to Christmas in the states by Mr Youth has found that brands are only responding to just over half of brand page posts (61% on Twitter and 55% on Facebook to be exact). It highlights an on-going challenge for brands and their social media presence – once you’ve taken the plunge, how do you maintain it?

In reality, there is no better approach than a ‘community manager’ installed within the brand’s business itself. A third party manager can delay response times (while seeking approvals), feel less authentic and often lead to higher costs but that’s still better than the biggest crime of all - an unresponsive brand. This role can’t just be 10% of someone’s job, in fact it’s more than likely going to turn into a full time one, but direct interaction with the customer will usually prove to be extremely valuable not just in building a stronger relationship and reputation for the brand, but ultimately in driving a higher rate of sales conversion and loyalty.

Whether that’s through improving customer support services through Twitter like DELL, providing real time flight information when the weather has caused chaos like EasyJet or simply answering sales enquiries – indeed the same study found that those brands that did invest in on-going conversations with interested consumers benefited from an impressive conversion rate: 80% of users that received a response went on to purchase.