I went to a ‘big conversation’ hosted by Mintel last week that used four macro trends to forecast how the world could be working in 2015 and the subsequent impact that could have for people, industry and brands.
It mixed cold hard data and market experience to project what we can expect to see in future years and it threw up some interesting points providing real food for thought, particularly around how products and brands need to evolve and adapt to the new tastes and customs of a global audience.
For me the most interesting point came with the intersection of three trends, all of which are pretty self-explanatory, well the first two at least, the third refers to the older generation, their increased number, spending power and youthful attitude to life.
1. East meets West
2. Access everywhere
3. Old Gold
It was a reoccurring theme around the notion of a healthy lifestyle along with the importance of looking after yourself and others that I found interesting – here’s a top line on the three trends and how their convergence could provide significant opportunities for some brands.
1. East meets West. The growth of the East is well documented but the size and speed of this growth really is something to behold…
· 90% increase in India’s GDP over the next four years
· More 1m+ populated cities in China than the US and Canada
· China responsible for 25% of luxury goods sales across the globe in 2011
· Migration to cities (particularly in China and India) will result in 70% of world population living in cities by 2020
It’s fair to assume that the subsequent impact on the cost of living and consumption of everything from food to luxury manufactured goods across the globe will be significant.
2. Access Everywhere is already well under way, but the innovations around smart phones, location based technology, along with NFC technology removing data transfer barriers, will have a huge effect on how people interact with their surroundings…
· By 2014, more people will access the web via mobile than desk top machines
· Attitudes to online security are changing - 30% of teens who have been ‘hacked’ said they don’t think it’s a big deal
· Personal appliances previewed at the recent Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas are now synchronised to social networks and mobile devices
· People are increasingly prepared to pay more for mobile tailored content
· 1 in 3 men in the U.S. use their mobile to manage their health
Again, health and wellbeing are likely to see significant advances as a result of technology driving “DIY health”. We’ve seen diabetes blood testing apps and Wi-Fi enabled smart scales at CES and the recently launched Nike+ FuelBand is another example of technology driving the personalised health sector.
3. Finally, Old Gold highlights the growing impact that an ageing population could have and argues that a once ignored consumer group should become a much greater focus for brands over the next five years, especially given their appetite for adventure and receptiveness to new technologies improving their lifestyle.
· 144m more over 55s in the world than today (by 2015)
· Over 55s will double by 2015 in the UK
· Intergenerational homes becoming more and more commonplace
· By 2015, 41% of South Koreans and 45% of Japanese will be aged over 60
· 50% of kindle users are over 50
· 50% of babies born after the year 2000 will live to 100 years old
The numbers above highlight the strain that state services will be under in trying to look after an ageing population. It’s likely that remit will begin to fall to families, not just the state – and that could have implications still further for the long term attitude of governments to the health and wellbeing of its people.
It feels like the opportunity around health and wellbeing over the next 5 years in particular will be significant. And I’m not just talking about importing Tai Chi exercise into the workplace here. I think we’re likely to see a longer term pro-active approach to health and wellbeing that encompasses a much more holistic perspective, facilitated partly by the advances in mobile technologies and personalised health management and partly by the wider social backdrop of healthcare systems under considerable strain. with intergenerational family units caring for each other as opposed to relying on the state, much like we see in the Far East.
Will we end up with a nation of health obsessed hypochondriacs? I don’t think so; I think people will be much more aware of the lifestyle they are leading and that improved education and tangible monitoring techniques will enable people to enjoy a more balanced lifestyle. It will enable people to really question the suitability (be that provenance, health or ethical credentials) of the products and brands on offer to them. All of which could have significant repercussions for brands that are ill prepared, while also serving as a huge competitive advantage for those businesses that have evolved to pre-empt a new breed of consumer.
No comments:
Post a Comment